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In the morning, the Asia-Pacific stock market generally fell, but A shares once rose against the trend. I thought I would take an independent market, but I didn't expect it to be brought down at noon.Therefore, the logic of Liu Changsong's bearish position is wrong. I am also cautious in this position, but the reason why I am cautious is that the theme stocks are too hot and the blue chips have been stagnating, so there is a problem of switching market styles, not whether the market will fall. Because of the recent stagflation of blue chips, there is no momentum for the market to fall.Moreover, the liquidity is very good. The daily turnover is 7 billion, which is still T+0. There is no stamp duty. You can withdraw at any time to copy stocks, and you can hide in it to eat solid income. This year, it has also increased by 7%.

And I don't want to bet on the confidence of the organization, but I don't want to be short, so I have switched my position from individual stocks to a sound debt base.According to Liu Changsong's point of view, to put it bluntly, shrinkage will fall. Then, according to this logic, because everyone is buying up and not buying down, they will continue to shrink when they fall, so they will continue to fall. Then how to explain the sudden surge in volume at the end of September? How to explain the continuous decline after the release of the sky on October 8? In fact, people who see the heavy volume re-enter the market are now in the position of 10.8.Among the national debt and political debt, I chose the only political bond ETF in the two cities. Although the debt base is very safe and the risk is very small, the latter has a short duration compared with 30 years, and the short-term withdrawal is even smaller due to the negative impact. In addition, the government debt itself is also a "quasi-national debt", because of the credit risk compensation, it has a higher yield and a higher cost performance than the national debt.

Therefore, the logic of Liu Changsong's bearish position is wrong. I am also cautious in this position, but the reason why I am cautious is that the theme stocks are too hot and the blue chips have been stagnating, so there is a problem of switching market styles, not whether the market will fall. Because of the recent stagflation of blue chips, there is no momentum for the market to fall.And I don't want to bet on the confidence of the organization, but I don't want to be short, so I have switched my position from individual stocks to a sound debt base.Recently, there have been a lot of monster stocks because the index has set up a theme to sing opera. However, if the index can't continue to build up here, the theme of singing opera is also at risk of flameout. Therefore, there is an urgent need for stagflation blue chips to come out, but because blue chips are institutional tickets, in the final analysis, it depends on whether institutions can strengthen their confidence.